Under
the 2A we should have nationwide Constitutional Carry – but the chances
of getting that politically are essentially zero. We may
add one more permitless carry state this year (NC), but the chances of
any other state passing it, or Congress mandating it are close to
nill. If we get nationwide constitutional carry, it will have to
come from SCOTUS.Turning our attention to the current CCW reciprocity bill, the authors have included some provisions that have no chance of getting through the Senate – most notably allowing people living in permitless carry states to carry in every state without a permit. Additionally, there are no minimum standards for training and background checks for a state permit to qualify for reciprocity. These provide opportunities for our opposition to attack the bill and excuses for Democratic senators (and will will need 8-9 of them) to vote against the bill.
So, IMHO, if the bill is going to get pass the filibuster, we are going to have to trade these provisions for the votes of some Democratic Senators from shall issue states.
There is some good news: Most people think that CCW licenses should be good in every state, just like driver’s licenses. Of course, with drivers licenses there are minimum standards and every state requires a license. Unfortunately, we lose the ability to make this argument effectively while the bill doesn’t always require a permit, let alone establish minimum standards for recognition.
I believe that one of two things will happen when the bill gets to the Senate:
Just like last time, the bill will remain unchanged and will either never come to a floor vote or will be filibustered. GOP Senate leadership may very well do this simply to save the issue for the next election….
The Senate GOP leadership will actually get to work and get the required number of Democratic votes by doing some horse trading. I ***THINK*** this will require us to give them the permitless carry provisions and include some kind of minimum training and background check requirement.
This will let a few Democratic senators from pro-2A states to have it both ways (think John Fetterman). They will be able to tell the pro-gun rights side, “I voted for CCW reciprocity” and to the anti-gun rights side, “I got them to include permit and minimum training requirements”. Like it or not (and I don’t) this is how politics works.
As long as the bill doesn’t interfere with states abilities to enact permitless carry, recognize permits that don’t meet the new federal standards, or issue permits that don’t meet them – then such a bill would clearly advance gun rights.
The question we are likely to face is simple: Do we want a good bill to pass and become law, or do we want a perfect bill to fail?
For those who take the “all or nothing” position, I have this question: If we had begun in the late 1980s with a demand for permitless carry, would we have 29 permitless carry states today? I think not. We got here one step at a time. Let’s take the next step.
Rev. R. Vincent Warde
4/1/2025
